THE CAUCASUS IN THE SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: POTENTIAL RISKS AND SOLUTIONS

The Caucasus as a key region.

The Caucasus region is unique in its complexity and countless contradictions. In the territory, which makes up less than a third of the territory of such European countries as France and Germany, there live several dozen major nations and more than a hundred small nationalities. State-forming nations are the Georgian, Azerbaijani and Armenian peoples. Moreover, in the Caucasus intersects the geopolitical interests of not only several states, but also several worlds: North (Russia), South (Turkey), West (Europe), East (Iran). In a broader perspective, the Caucasus is the intersection of the interests of Christian and Islamic civilizations. In global aspect, Caucasus is the border between Europe and Asia and the shortest bridge between these regions. Moreover, the Caucasus has access to two strategic marine basins at once:

• The Black Sea, which determines the interconnections and security of all Eastern and Central Europe, with access to the Mediterranean and the border of Eurasia and Africa;

• The Caspian Sea, affecting security and interaction throughout the Near and Middle East.

Global geopolitical trends determined by modern superpowers and a tremendous results of scientific and technological progress turned globalization into giant interactive process involving the entire population of the planet at the level of each individual. This factor has a strong influence on the socio-political processes in the Caucasus. As a result, the region found itself in a completely new reality. For centuries, the Caucasus was an arena of confrontation between local historical neighbors, but today it is an object of interest and influence of all significant centers of power.

Thus, despite its small size, the Caucasus due to its geopolitical location is one of the key regions of Eurasia, and by its contradictory nature it is one of the most unstable and difficult to predict.

Based on the role and place that the Caucasus occupies in a modern world, maintaining stability in the region is vital not only for regional, but also for international security.

The XXI century will increase speed and scale of transport and information flows. Military-economic potential of the leading powers also will be increased as well as rivalry between them. We will see new natural and man-made challenges at the global level. All these processes will be displayed in the Caucasus, causing, in turn, a backlash. Taking into account the interests, capabilities and will of global players, processes in the Caucasus can become the starting point of a geopolitical confrontation with turning into a hot phase.

Thus, it is vitally important to determine the current and potential geopolitical risks in the Caucasus and ways to solve them in order to prevent potential regional and international escalation.

The Caucasus: the nature of risks.

The entire set of risks in the region can be divided into two large categories: permanent (historical) risks and temporary risks.

The permanent (historical) risks of the Caucasus include:

• a small area and mountainous terrain of the region, which complicate the resettlement of certain communities and creates potential risks of territorial claims;

• ethnic and religious diversity of the local population, capable of becoming a potential base of conflict of interest;

• significantly mixed populations, capable of becoming a catalyst for fast and large-scale destructive processes;

• the historical influence of powerful neighbors, which have a decisive influence on the region, and ultimately on the speed and scope of political processes;

• natural disasters: high seismic activity in the region, difficult climatic conditions, the associated danger of technological disasters.

Temporary risks include:- the current level of globalization, which determines the exceptional speed and density of transport and information flows, with the possibility of rapid and significant spread of both positive and negative trends;

• the influence of non-regional geopolitical players and the potential to further aggravate rivalry in the region;

• the current level of scientific and technical progress and the associated technological risks;

These risks are current and affect the environment to varying degrees. Moreover, each of the risks can be significantly increased as a result of both intraregional and international processes and itself can become a catalyst for their further deepening.

The high density and ethno-confessional mixture of the population, the relatively small territory of the Caucasus determine the rapid development and high intensity of any crisis with the involvement of significant masses of the population, with large-scale and long-term consequences.

Particular note is the high risk of the crisis escalating into conventional and unconventional hostilities, involving regional and global players in it. This trend is especially dangerous in the prospect of the deployment of military contingents of global rivals in the region. Moreover, the presence of the military potential of various global forces on the Black Sea is already a given and has the character of a “peaceful confrontation”. Addition of land and air components will further complicate the balance of forces in the region and will require a more thorough mechanism for managing them.

The escalation of all forms of warfare due to the small geographic area and population density of the region, as well as the speed and destructive power of modern weapons, will inevitably lead to extreme fierce fighting with extremely high civilian casualties and catastrophic destruction of social and economic infrastructure. Moreover, even a minimal intra-regional conflict necessarily requires direct or indirect participation of global players, which is fraught with a clash between them and the armed confrontation entering the international arena.

Risk management.

The analysis of historical / permanent risks clearly shows that their significant change or liquidation is possible only after military-political, natural or man-made disaster. Each of the permanent risks is caused by the conflicting geographical, ethnographic and historical specifics of the region and stems from the very essence of the Caucasus, as a unique society. We can confidently state that the presence of these contradictions is an integral part of the regional environment and the elimination of them means the elimination of the Caucasus itself.

At the same time, temporary risks are a product of the modern era and, despite the transient nature, carry within themselves a potential no less, and sometimes more destructive, than permanent risks.

Thus, effective risk management is a critical factor in ensuring regional, and based on it, international stability.

Permanent (historical) risks management.

1. The first and most important condition for managing historical risks in the Caucasus is the creation of a solid and comprehensive system of regional security with the involvement of international political institutions and superpowers with their own geopolitical interests in the region. The basis of this security system should be a regional regulatory organization in which the interests of all regional state and national entities will be represented. This could  be a military-political bloc responsible for the internal and external security of the region in peacetime and wartime. Currently, this opportunity is seriously limited due to a sluggish military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and conflicts in the internal enclaves of Georgia. However, even the most difficult situation does not exclude successful cooperation if there is an appropriate will of all partners.

2. Intraregional economic integration and the formation of a regional market as the basis for ensuring economic security in the global economic environment. The economic potential of the three Caucasian states provides such an opportunity.

3. The creation of a common financial reserve with an equal responsibility of each party and a clearly regulated procedure for spending funds. This structure will greatly facilitate the financial provision of unplanned expenses caused by crisis circumstances.

4. Development of a unified concept of regional security based on the interests of all ethnic and religious groups, coordinated resolution of mutual territorial and historical claims.

5. Broad cooperation in the fields of civil society with the involvement of masses of the population of all state and national entities.

These steps do not guarantee absolute protection against possible exacerbation, but they help to minimize the negative results of any of them due to the effective crisis management mechanism.

The most serious problems in permanent risks management are:

• historically evolved intra-regional contradictions of a territorial, national, religious, demographic and cultural-ideological nature;

• modern intra-regional contradictions caused by the collapse of the world communist system and the formation of a new geopolitical reality at the turn of the XX-XXI centuries;

• The interests and influence of global rivals, considering the Caucasus as an arena of confrontation.

As we can see, the key to managing permanent risks mostly depends on temporary risks management.

Temporary risks management.

The complexity of managing temporary risks is determined by:

• high dynamism of current processes;

• constantly updated environment and conditions requiring a regular search for new solutions and resources;

• the prospect of more complex challenges in the future, with higher speed and scope;

• the disparate geopolitical superiority of the global players present in the region.

In these conditions, risk management should be based on a deep analysis of the interests and capabilities of all parties involved; a thorough assessment of the existing social environment and prediction of its future changes; responsive to changing international situation and planning a long-term strategy.

The most important steps of temporary risks management are:

1. The development of a flexible and adequate policy that accurately and timely responds to the rapid rising of scientific and technological progress; analysis of its positive and negative sides with the active implementation of the first and mitigation of the second.

2. Development of an effective strategy for preserving national cultural identity in the face of a giant wave of globalization and the formation of an effective mechanism to counter the spread of its negative aspects: epidemics, drug trafficking, etc.

3. Taking into account the interests of global players present in the region and building consensus. Based on the analysis of the historical past and current trends, it is necessary to conduct the most thorough study of their short and long-term goals, means and methods of influence; compatibility with the key interests of the region.

It should be noted that interaction with global players in the region is the most difficult task of managing all types of risks and is impossible without the involvement of international organizations. The authority and influence of such international institutions as the UN, EU, NATO is able to provide effective risk control, as it involves the use of much larger resources than all regional in total.

The Caucasus in the system of international relations: the role and prospects of regional security.

In the light of modern comprehensive globalization, the Caucasus has turned into one of the most explosive regions, with the potential for global destabilization. This tendency is especially intensified by the adjoining of the region to the Black Sea an Caspian Sea basins. All this determines the location of the Caucasus on the border of civilizations. At the same time, Transcaucasia is considered as part of Europe, but the region passing along its northern border - the North Caucasus is not considered such. Thus, even at the level of international law and political conception, the status of the Caucasus remains uncertain. Accordingly, the main civilizational tendency of the development of the Caucasus cannot be considered definite.

All this is observed in the presence of a clearly defined pro-Western course of Georgia and a relatively independent course of Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, Armenia is oriented towards Russia, although it showed a line towards rapprochement with Europe, and Azerbaijan firmly adheres to the course towards rapprochement with Turkey, and only through its civilization space is it ready to contact both Europe and the whole world. At the same time, each of the three countries adheres to completely different confessional traditions. Georgia and Armenia, being Christian countries, are divided into Orthodoxy and the Gregorian faith, and Azerbaijan is an Islamic state. The situation is aggravated by the Muslim regions of the North Caucasus, which are part of Russia.

All this inevitably determines the synthesis of regional and international processes, which often do not correspond to the complex specifics of the region and are capable of aggravating centuries-old contradictions.

All this requires the closest attention to the Caucasus from the international community, an extremely cautious and balanced approach from Europe and NATO, a multi-level system analysis of the processes developing in the region.

It should be recognized that the rivalry of superpowers in the Caucasus cannot take place in such forms and by such means as in other regions of the planet.

This is determined by the following factors:

1. The region borders directly on Russia in the north and Turkey in the south. Any destabilization, and especially armed escalation due to a combination of circumstances, can be transferred to the territory of these states, which will cause their immediate and full-scale response.

2. The region is directly adjacent to the Black Sea, which could turn into an arena of armed confrontation. Moreover, destabilization can spread not only to Ukraine, but also to the countries of Eastern Europe: Romania, Bulgaria. At present, the foreign military presence in the Black Sea is regulated by the Montreux Convention, which is a reliable guarantee of maintaining stability. However, this convention applies only to the marine area.

3. The region is the shortest connecting corridor between Europe and Asia, which determines its exceptional place in the network of international transport communications. Over time, its value will only increase. Any destabilization will jeopardize international transport flows, which is objectively fraught with escalation into an armed conflict.

These objective factors unequivocally testify the need to develop a completely special policy towards the Caucasus and to consolidate it in the relevant international treaties and at the UN level.

The main contours of such a policy could be recognized as follows:

• assignment to the Caucasus of the special status of a neutral subject of international law in whose territory a foreign military presence is prohibited or strictly limited. This will prevent the rapprochement of the armed forces of geopolitical rivals, which will avoid unforeseen military excesses;

• the creation at the UN level of a special regulatory body that will focus specifically on the Caucasus and respond promptly to current challenges;

• signing of a multilateral security treaty between countries located in the Caucasus or adjacent to it, including the countries of the Black Sea and Caspian Sea basins.

It is important to realize the role and place of this small region in the system of international security, determined by its geopolitical location. The Caucasus can become both a source of stability and prosperity at the regional and international level, and a source of destabilization and global military conflict.